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Jake Ellenberger vs. Diego Sanchez: This is an awesome welterweight fight, and while it's disappointing that it's available to so few people on this card, it's still hugely important for both of them, and for things at the top of the welterweight division. With Carlos Condit likely to wait out a fight with Georges St-Pierre at this point, the winner of this fight will likely be involved in a number one contender fight later this year. Ellenberger enters his second straight headlining fight the favorite on a five fight win streak, and fights in front of a hometown crowd in Omaha.
Ellenberger's grappling game is extremely solid, but it's not at all his concentration. He is always more than content throwing his hands and looking to out-strike his opponents. His 17 career (T)KO finishes are a testament to his striking game, and he'll attempt to become just the second person to stop Sanchez in a fight.
But that's where Sanchez's game comes into play. He's got tons of heart, and is willing to trade strikes with absolutely anyone. He's also got a solid grappling game, but as well has concentrated on his striking more often than not. He'll test Ellenberger's chin and keep up a relentless pace throughout the fight.
This is going to be a grueling, hard-hitting back and forth fight, and one that Sanchez can win if he can drain Ellenberger early on. However, Ellenberger is the crisper, more accurate striker in 2012, and though his cardio hasn't really been tested outside of his UFC debut, it should be capable of getting him through two strong rounds to start the fight. I can't see him stopping Sanchez in a three-round bout, but he should be able to do enough to take the first two rounds. I'll take Ellenberger by decision.
Stefan Struve vs. Dave "PeeWee" Herman: Herman is a bit of a strange guy, but he's a fairly talented heavyweight, and with a 6'5" frame is one of the taller fighters in the sport. Of course, in this one he's going up against the tallest fighter in the UFC in the 6'11" Struve, who enters off a submission win over Pat Barry last October.
The 23-year-old Struve has given UFC fans a number of very exciting moments in nine fights in the organization, but they haven't always been in his favor. While he's gone 6-3 with five stoppages, his three losses have all been brutal KO losses, and all three have been setup by Struve struggling to successfully and efficiently use his reach advantage.
That could be a problem against Herman. While he had an awkward-at-times fight with John Olav Einemo in his UFC debut last June, he did stop him in the second round, and owns 15 career knockout wins, with five submissions and just one by decision. Additionally, he's only lost twice, and one of them was a disqualification.
This fight will tell a lot about where Herman is at in the division. If he can get inside Struve's reach and connect on him, he'll win the fight by knockout and move up the ladder a bit further. However, if Struve is able to connect early and often, keep his attacks at bay, and pull off the win himself, Herman will be firmly planted in the mid-tier of the division. Struve is Herman's gatekeeper into the UFC right now, and we'll see just where he's at. I think there might be something there, so I'll take Herman by TKO in the second.
Aaron Simpson vs. Ronny Markes: Simpson's been in the UFC for almost three years now, and holds a 6-2 mark inside the Octagon. He's a very good wrestler with solid striking skills, and he's used that to pick up some wins against some good competition. Markes made his UFC debut last August with a good win over Karlos Vemola, and now he drops down to middleweight for this second fight.
Though Markes has competed successfully above 185 lbs., he's not going to have a huge size advantage in this fight. Simpson's a tough fighter that will press the pace and try to wear Markes out throughout the fight, but Markes is a good overall fighter and will challenge him wherever the fight goes. I think Markes can get it done, but it's not going to be an easy one. This is a tossup fight, and I'll lean towards Markes by decision.
Stipe Miocic vs. Philip de Fries: Both Miocic and de fries are undefeated prospects, but Miocic comes in as rightfully the prohibitive favorite. He's a former NCAA D-1 wrestler, though he hasn't been tested much to date. Then again, neither has de Fries. I wouldn't bet on a fight like this with such overwhelming odds against two fairly unproven guys, but Miocic has the game to defeat de Fries. I'll take Miocic by decision.
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Walel Watson: Dillashaw looked impressive through his time on The Ultimate Fighter, but then he was on the wrong end of a knockout against John Dodson in the TUF 14 finale. Watson impressed in his UFC debut with a win over Joseph Sandoval, but then lost a controversial split decision to Yves Jabouin the next time out. The big x-factor in this fight is Watson's 5" height advantage. He knows how to use that reach, and it will make it hard for Dillashaw to use his wrestling. Even if he gets Watson down, he could be in danger of submissions from "The Gazelle" as well. I'm surprised Dillashaw's as big a favorite as he is into this one, and I like Watson's game a lot. I think he'll bounce back here. I'll take the upset and Watson by submission in the second round.
John Albert vs. Ivan Menjivar: Menjivar is the experienced veteran, with Albert entering the event an impressive newcomer. MMATorch's TUF 14 blogger made a highly impressive UFC debut in December when he blasted Dustin Pague, while Menjivar has impressed in his last two outings in the UFC.
Menjivar is going to push Albert like he's never been pushed before. He's got a solid all-around game that makes him durable and hard to defeat, and he hasn't been stopped in a fight since 2002. Considering Albert has never gone past the second round, that's not necessarily a good sign for him.
Still, Albert's time on the show wasn't necessarily indicative of the type of fighter he is, and he's going to be extremely dangerous for Menjivar anywhere the fight goes. His aggression could either work for or against him in this fight, but I actually think he'll perform quite well. This is a big opportunity for him, and I'm going to go with a biased pick on this one and take Albert to shock most with a TKO win in the second round.
Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/penickstake/article_12504.shtml
Andrei Arlovski Ricardo Arona Noboru Asahi Marcus Aurelio Mikhail Avetisyan
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